It’s officially Week 1 with the last and final preseason game in the books. With that in mind, this week will be the last time we can access the future player prop odds before the season starts on Thursday night. The intrigue starts now and none more so than what is going on in Baltimore with their QB and offense coming into 2019.
Lamar Jackson comes into his second season full of promise. The popular opinion on him is split. Half believe he cannot be a franchise QB based off what they saw last year. Others fully believe in the talent and infrastructure the Ravens have built around Jackson. The Ravens QB has had a full offseason practicing with the first team offense and new offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who has had success with running QBs in the past. There has been a lot of talk this preseason how the Ravens will be revolutionary in how their offense will look this season, with all signs pointing to Jackson running as much, if not more than he did last season. Jackson ran a league record 147 times last season and if Jackson stays healthy he could easily surpass that. Jackson accomplished that feat in only 7 starts. The over under this year for Lamar Jackson’s rushing yards is at 880.5 yards, and I am taking the OVER here. Do yourself a favor and lock this one in and enjoy watching one of the most talented running QBs the NFL has ever seen.
Lamar’s biggest injustice of them all comes with his TD prop of just 16.5 Passing TDs. I am taking the OVER and I absolutely love the odds here. Everyone seems to be down on Lamar Jackson the passer, except for actual analytics. According to Warren Sharp Football Analysis, there have been only eleven quarterbacks in NFL history to attempt at least 150 passes when they were 21 years old or younger. Lamar Jackson ranked number one based on passer rating within that group. He ranked number two in adjusted yards per attempt and number two in completion rate. Who are the other 11? Well the list includes Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and Drew Bledsoe, among others. As a passer, Jackson is being undervalued. He posted a higher YPA and a better passer rating in his rookie season than Luck, Goff, Trubisky, Wentz, and Manning. Add in the weapons that were added to this team and the fact that the new OC, who also coached Colin Kaepernick 21 passing TDs in 2013 and Tyrod Taylor 20 passing TDs in his best year in 2015. The sportsbooks are predicting that Jackson will only throw 1 TD a week. I think he gets into the low 20s. The Ravens had a bottom half redzone/TD conversion rate in 2018 and with the added pieces of Miles Boykin and Marquise Brown along with the emergence of Mark Andrews, the sky is the limit for Jackson, who has all the talent in the world and now will be taking the next step into game changer at the position.
To recap I like the OVER 880.5 rushing yards and the OVER 16.5 passing TDs. I will be handicapping a few props for Week 1 games at sportscastr.com Follow me @SemiProUSN on Sportcastr today!
Corey Easley is a Contributor for the Unwrapped Sports Network website. Follow him @Cmoney52 on Twitter.